Disruptions to U.S.
and global agricultural production and trade resulting from economic, natural,
or policy induced shocks are not new, but their frequency and significance has
proliferated over the last five years. In 2018/19 the U.S. became engulfed in a
trade war with several of its largest trading partners and allies. In 2020,
international trade and output volumes plunged due to the Covid-19 pandemic,
but recovered sharply in 2021. The strong recovery of international demand and
consumer spending, however, left supply chains bottlenecked and affected many
U.S. agricultural exports. Finally, on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded
Ukraine sending shockwaves through food, energy and fertilizer markets. Coupled
with an uncertain macroeconomic outlook and rapid and persistent inflation, the
global economy faces significant headwinds. This presentation reviews what has
been a turbulent five years for U.S. food and agricultural markets and what may
lie ahead in 2023 and beyond.
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